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Tag Tag Probability
If you don’t get elementary probability into your repertoire, you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.
Charlie Munger Poor Charlie’s Almanack · 2005

Quotes

“There is no sense in calculating the probability or the chance that something happens after it happens.”

Richard Feynman · The Meaning of It All, 1998 · Primary source

“That’s how the Law of Large Numbers works: not by balancing out what’s already happened, but by diluting what’s already happened with new data, until the past is so proportionally negligible that it can safely be forgotten.”

Jordan Ellenberg · How Not to Be Wrong, 2015 · Primary source

Works

Jordan Ellenberg · 2015
How Not to Be Wrong

An exploration of how mathematical reasoning can clarify everyday questions involving probability, statistics, data, risk and decision-making.

Read summary·Explore 5 quotes

Related Tags

Decision-making 35 Risk 29 Uncertainty 20 Evidence 19 Quantitative reasoning 2 Mathematical reasoning 2 Selection bias 1 Post hoc reasoning 1 Statistical inference 1 Law of Large Numbers 1 Statistical convergence 1 Sample size 1 Statistics 1 Data interpretation 1