Speaking in January 1984, Reagan drew on a familiar argument in international relations: that conflict becomes more likely when a potential aggressor calculates that the gains of war outweigh its costs. If aggression appears cheap and low-risk, the restraint that helps keep the peace weakens.

The remark reflects the logic of deterrence, which underpinned much of Reagan’s foreign policy. By maintaining strong defences, the argument runs, a state raises the expected price of attack high enough to discourage it. The point is framed as a lesson drawn from history rather than a new theory.

The idea has a long lineage, echoing the classical maxim that preparing for war can help preserve peace. Critics note that military build-ups can also fuel arms races and mutual mistrust, a tension Reagan acknowledged elsewhere in the same address.

Full quotation

“History teaches that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap. To keep the peace, we and our allies must be strong enough to convince any potential aggressor that war could bring no benefit, only disaster. So, when we neglected our defenses, the risks of serious confrontation grew.”