Quotation Economics Investment
October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
Mark Twain The Tragedy of Pudd'nhead Wilson · 1894
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This quotation appears at the beginning of Chapter 13, “Tom Stares at Ruin”, of The Tragedy of Pudd'nhead Wilson. In the novel, it is attributed to the lawyer David “Pudd'nhead” Wilson and presented as an extract from his calendar, Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar.
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Twain uses humour to challenge the idea that there is a particularly safe or dangerous time to speculate in stocks. He begins by singling out October as an unusually risky month, apparently offering a specific warning. However, by listing every other month of the year, he reveals that his caution applies at all times. The joke exposes the difficulty of predicting financial markets and questions the confidence with which people claim to identify favourable moments for speculation.

The quotation distinguishes the apparent precision of market forecasts from the uncertainty underlying speculative investments. Share prices are influenced by changing economic conditions, expectations and events that cannot be predicted consistently. Twain suggests that the dangers of speculation are not confined to particular seasons but are inherent in the activity itself. His remark is a satirical warning rather than an argument against all investment. It encourages scepticism towards promises of easy profits and highlights the importance of recognising financial risk, regardless of when an investment is made.

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