Toynbee challenges the assumption that territorial expansion is necessarily evidence of a civilisation’s strength or growth. In his account, expansion often occurs after a society has entered a period of internal breakdown. Political conflict produces militarism, and leaders who become dominant through warfare may eventually impose a “universal state”, Toynbee’s term for a large political order formed during a late stage of civilisational decline.

External conquest can therefore be misleading as a measure of historical vitality. Toynbee argues that military energies first directed against rivals within a society may subsequently be turned against neighbouring peoples, producing territorial gains while the civilisation itself is becoming less creative and more dependent on force. The broader distinction is between geographical power and genuine development: a state or civilisation may be enlarging its territory at the same time that its underlying social and cultural capacity is deteriorating.